2019 Automotive Composites Outlook
Featured in Composites Manufacturing Magazine
By Marc Benevento
Industrial Market Insight
Automotive composites market outlook
Nearly 4.5 billion pounds of composite materials are sold into automotive
applications on an annual basis. The vast majority of this volume are
thermoplastic composites, which generally have lower material and
processing costs than thermoset materials. Drivers for composite consumption
in the automotive industry are, in the most basic form, vehicle production and the
ability to win applications from materials such as steel and aluminum, which will
be examined below.
For composite applications currently specified on production vehicles, the
amount of material consumed is proportional to the number of units produced.
Global vehicle production growth is expected to be modest in 2019 and the near
future, with annual growth rates of about 2%. Most unit production growth is
anticipated to come from China and southeast Asia, with mature markets,
including the United States and Western Europe, relatively flat. Therefore,
composites will need to win new applications from steel and aluminum in order to
realize significant volume growth.
The competition for applications on mass production automobiles is fierce, with
materials winning based on the value they provide in terms of cost versus
performance and weight. Because a primary driver of composite material
selection is weight savings, the priority OEMs place on weight reduction will be
paramount to future adoption of composite materials. Regional fuel economy
standards and adoption of electric powertrains will play important roles in the
future of composites in the automotive market.
Fuel economy standards and emission limits have been a primary driver of
lightweight material adoption on new vehicles in the recent past. Lighter vehicles
require less energy to start and stop, improving fuel efficiency. As a result of
higher fuel economy standards imposed through 2021, aluminum and higher
strength steel content of light vehicles has increased sharply, along with rising
use of and interest in glass and carbon fiber composites.
Stringent emission and fuel economy regulations through the 2020 – 2022
timeframe will continue to drive demand for lightweight materials. Europe is the
established center of the automotive composites world due to government and
consumer incentives for small, lightweight, and efficient vehicles. The United
States and Canada are the only countries with established regulations beyond
2022, but the United States is currently considering relaxing regulations beyond
2021. Less challenging fuel economy regulations would remove incentive for
adoption of lightweight composite materials in North America, which would
ensure that composite technology leadership and material consumption remains
elsewhere.
The emergence of new technologies in automobiles will also factor into future
demand for composites in the industry. The impact electric powertrains and
autonomous vehicles will have on automotive materials are subjects of great
debate at the moment. Electric vehicles have large batteries that must be
enclosed to provide protection from the environment and road debris. Driverless
cars will change the way people interact with vehicles and create new demands
and desires for interior features. The timing and magnitude of these technological shifts will dictate if these are attractive opportunities for composites in the short or long term.
There continues to be a great opportunity to expand the market share of
composites in the automotive industry. In the short term, the need for lightweight
structures to aid in meeting rising regulatory hurdles will drive new applications of
composites. Although a relaxation of fuel economy standards in the United
States could serve as a barrier to the adoption of composites in the short-term,
the introduction of electric powertrains and autonomous vehicles will create a
new wave of opportunity for these materials. Uncertainty around the timing and
magnitude of that opportunity is a source of angst for OEMs and material
suppliers alike.
Marc Benevento
Managing Director
Industrial Market Insight
www.industrial-market-insight.com
mbenevento@industrial-market-insight.com